* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162019 10/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 37 33 31 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 37 29 31 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 30 27 28 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 31 29 31 35 32 36 41 49 53 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 10 12 6 6 4 9 0 2 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 276 275 278 290 286 295 288 306 305 297 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.8 27.8 26.6 26.5 25.9 25.8 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 153 149 147 151 137 123 122 114 107 115 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 146 139 134 138 124 110 108 97 86 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 53 50 49 53 56 54 44 40 29 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 21 21 22 22 19 17 18 18 14 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -12 -20 -19 -20 -9 -17 -21 -37 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 56 71 60 35 43 0 -43 -65 -104 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 29 27 48 48 36 39 8 9 13 24 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 435 317 260 170 7 -109 14 160 522 552 476 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.3 27.3 28.6 29.8 32.1 33.9 36.0 36.8 37.0 37.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.2 89.4 87.6 86.6 85.5 82.2 77.9 74.1 69.3 68.2 69.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 17 16 17 19 19 19 12 1 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 132 44 47 24 24 2 6 10 2 0 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 19 CX,CY: 16/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -20. -30. -40. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -2. -2. -3. -9. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. -2. -4. -7. -12. -24. -36. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.2 91.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 37 29 31 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 36 28 30 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 24 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 18 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT