* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162019 10/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 36 36 37 35 32 29 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 36 36 37 32 28 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 33 25 26 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 27 34 34 37 37 40 39 46 53 57 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 9 10 11 11 7 7 7 -2 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 287 275 274 279 289 293 296 299 298 318 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.9 27.4 26.1 27.1 25.9 25.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 161 159 152 149 153 133 118 126 112 107 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 154 149 139 135 139 121 105 108 93 89 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -53.2 -53.8 -54.7 -55.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 59 53 47 46 50 49 47 37 30 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 19 20 21 20 16 16 16 16 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 1 5 -6 -14 16 -20 -16 -18 -26 -55 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 37 65 65 37 49 19 0 -55 -80 -62 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 15 21 18 33 20 57 35 13 15 14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 445 433 290 174 156 -53 -65 22 257 432 565 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.3 26.5 27.6 28.6 30.5 32.6 34.6 36.0 36.5 36.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.2 91.8 90.3 89.0 87.8 85.2 81.3 76.5 73.0 70.8 69.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 18 17 15 15 17 21 19 13 8 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 72 93 53 57 32 31 5 1 15 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 37.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -13. -22. -32. -42. -48. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -6. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. 0. 0. -1. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -6. -10. -17. -29. -32. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.1 93.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 37.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 36 36 37 32 28 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 36 37 32 28 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 27 23 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 21 17 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT