* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162019 10/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 45 42 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 45 31 28 28 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 37 33 28 27 29 24 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 29 31 32 33 37 35 34 41 56 57 58 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 9 8 13 6 6 6 13 -1 0 -4 9 SHEAR DIR 262 280 283 276 270 291 280 291 287 294 296 313 266 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.8 29.0 27.8 26.7 24.2 26.6 26.6 27.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 163 160 151 154 137 124 101 120 119 123 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 159 155 152 140 140 124 111 89 101 99 100 86 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -54.1 -55.0 -55.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 65 60 53 47 49 52 51 41 34 27 41 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 17 20 22 22 19 16 15 15 14 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR 25 2 -1 9 -1 -9 2 16 -9 -16 -44 -60 33 200 MB DIV 68 38 37 72 83 33 41 -6 -40 -70 -89 -10 84 700-850 TADV -1 18 18 18 21 47 35 24 13 6 20 29 33 LAND (KM) 327 429 412 256 130 5 -165 -78 94 324 443 470 480 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.5 25.5 26.8 28.1 30.3 32.4 34.6 36.2 37.2 37.6 38.1 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 93.2 91.8 90.2 88.6 86.0 82.7 78.5 74.8 71.7 69.3 67.5 66.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 17 18 19 18 17 19 19 15 11 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 62 62 83 53 48 28 2 4 0 4 19 23 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -11. -19. -29. -39. -49. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 4. 1. 0. -1. -3. -9. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 7. 1. -6. -15. -24. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.4 94.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.02 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 17.8% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.8% 4.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/18/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 41 44 45 31 28 28 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 42 43 29 26 26 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 38 24 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT