* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162019 10/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 44 48 49 45 41 33 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 44 48 35 30 30 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 38 30 28 30 26 22 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 27 29 26 38 35 33 30 49 47 53 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 7 6 9 11 6 5 3 4 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 256 251 271 277 272 278 280 286 280 289 298 308 302 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.1 23.3 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 165 162 155 151 147 129 97 115 113 112 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 158 157 155 146 139 133 118 87 97 94 93 87 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 67 65 62 54 46 55 53 51 42 37 36 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 14 18 20 20 16 16 16 15 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 34 15 5 -7 7 -19 8 -14 1 -6 -32 -60 -37 200 MB DIV 118 80 50 36 75 41 55 4 0 -50 -62 -57 47 700-850 TADV 0 -2 16 20 21 56 41 59 50 37 17 27 57 LAND (KM) 216 383 451 390 256 97 -183 -54 71 338 514 580 538 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.6 26.8 29.6 31.6 33.8 36.5 37.4 37.0 37.1 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.4 94.0 92.7 91.1 89.5 86.7 83.3 79.6 75.0 71.4 69.0 67.2 65.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 15 17 19 19 18 18 21 19 12 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 72 64 64 107 50 23 3 6 0 1 4 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -14. -22. -31. -38. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 4. 3. 2. 0. -6. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 14. 10. 6. -2. -11. -22. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.6 95.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.24 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.47 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 20.0% 13.3% 8.5% 8.1% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 5.6% 4.1% 3.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.5% 5.8% 4.1% 2.9% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162019 SIXTEEN 10/17/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 44 48 35 30 30 23 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 41 45 32 27 27 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 40 27 22 22 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT