* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/31/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 55 50 37 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 55 50 37 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 62 58 53 49 42 38 34 31 32 37 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 35 34 46 52 57 40 22 17 21 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 13 12 4 7 8 1 -4 -2 0 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 193 180 182 195 193 180 180 188 195 194 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 17.0 20.0 18.8 17.0 11.6 9.7 10.2 9.3 8.3 7.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 77 85 81 77 71 69 69 68 68 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 74 79 76 73 69 67 67 66 66 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -52.9 -51.5 -48.8 -47.1 -47.1 -49.3 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.9 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.0 3.4 3.0 1.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 54 52 51 61 61 65 68 65 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 43 44 42 40 39 42 40 34 26 27 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 187 219 235 233 196 224 296 338 310 264 211 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 37 33 60 65 84 45 53 52 14 -109 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -50 -41 -67 -90 -97 -134 -94 12 13 -1 -54 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 990 800 687 737 855 1279 1244 826 552 462 854 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 40.3 42.6 44.6 46.6 50.5 53.9 56.7 59.2 62.3 66.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.5 48.6 46.6 44.1 41.6 35.5 29.0 22.1 15.0 8.4 2.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 27 27 27 28 27 25 23 22 22 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 30 CX,CY: 15/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -24. -29. -34. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -21. -24. -26. -29. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 0. 1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 1. -3. -10. -21. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 18. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -9. -7. -5. -4. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -15. -28. -38. -50. -58. -69. -71. -74. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 38.0 50.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 59 55 50 37 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 61 57 52 39 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 57 52 39 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 50 37 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT