* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/31/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 59 56 45 36 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 59 56 45 36 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 64 62 57 53 44 39 36 33 32 33 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 41 38 33 45 54 52 25 20 22 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 13 12 7 9 4 -1 -2 2 14 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 191 195 181 186 195 191 180 191 193 196 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.0 23.7 17.3 20.4 18.4 15.2 10.4 10.0 10.4 9.1 7.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 102 78 86 80 74 70 69 68 67 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 94 74 79 75 71 68 67 67 66 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -52.4 -50.1 -47.4 -47.0 -47.6 -49.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.7 0.9 2.0 2.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.4 3.0 2.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 51 52 51 58 61 58 65 68 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 39 43 43 43 39 41 43 37 29 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 141 189 221 237 240 190 238 316 315 302 232 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 33 26 34 51 65 80 82 52 13 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -48 -40 -52 -60 -91 -108 -7 12 -24 -61 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1257 1009 798 702 709 1022 1466 1060 701 487 540 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 37.8 40.2 42.3 44.4 48.0 51.8 54.9 57.4 60.2 63.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.4 50.6 48.9 46.8 44.6 39.1 33.0 26.3 19.3 13.0 7.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 28 27 26 26 27 27 24 22 20 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 24 CX,CY: 15/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -23. -28. -33. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -11. -16. -21. -25. -27. -30. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 6. 3. 6. 8. 1. -9. -19. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -20. -29. -35. -44. -54. -66. -69. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 35.4 52.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 61 59 56 45 36 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 62 60 57 46 37 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 56 45 36 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 41 32 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT