* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/31/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 62 64 63 55 40 36 30 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 62 64 63 55 40 36 30 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 63 63 62 59 47 40 39 36 34 33 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 33 45 38 28 48 54 40 24 27 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 9 15 5 11 3 -2 1 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 199 188 194 184 190 195 185 190 189 196 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 22.8 23.7 21.6 21.6 17.9 13.1 9.9 10.6 9.8 8.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 96 101 91 90 79 72 70 69 68 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 89 94 84 83 74 70 68 67 66 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -52.8 -52.3 -50.3 -48.4 -48.3 -49.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.8 4.2 3.3 3.9 2.8 2.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 47 52 52 63 60 60 60 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 35 41 46 45 40 36 43 41 33 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 147 208 234 256 213 223 295 307 282 225 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 25 40 21 36 55 79 41 36 56 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -21 -63 -43 -51 -108 -140 -97 5 -20 -61 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1463 1267 1037 841 713 856 1270 1209 737 527 479 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 35.3 37.5 39.8 42.0 45.8 49.8 53.3 56.3 59.1 62.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.5 52.8 51.0 49.0 47.0 41.9 35.6 28.3 20.8 14.6 9.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 26 27 27 27 28 29 27 24 20 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 18 CX,CY: 10/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -20. -25. -30. -33. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -6. -10. -15. -22. -26. -29. -33. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 9. 10. 7. 4. 11. 8. -1. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -8. -6. -4. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -1. -2. -10. -25. -29. -35. -44. -60. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 33.1 54.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 62 64 63 55 40 36 30 21 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 64 66 65 57 42 38 32 23 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 62 54 39 35 29 20 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 46 31 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT