* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/31/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 65 66 67 61 48 37 35 32 22 20 16 V (KT) LAND 70 66 65 66 67 61 48 37 35 32 22 20 16 V (KT) LGEM 70 66 66 67 65 55 44 40 39 38 39 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 29 32 43 38 43 52 51 30 24 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 3 5 9 8 10 4 -4 -2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 210 195 184 183 182 196 193 187 186 188 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 23.5 23.0 23.6 18.4 18.9 16.1 10.3 10.2 9.7 10.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 99 97 101 80 81 76 70 69 67 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 92 90 94 76 75 72 69 68 66 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -52.4 -51.2 -49.1 -48.0 -48.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.2 2.9 4.0 3.3 3.9 2.9 2.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 47 50 52 48 56 61 65 61 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 35 41 46 44 40 41 43 40 32 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 107 162 205 232 230 203 279 361 333 327 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 52 29 43 27 38 59 52 72 68 31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 0 -9 -58 -54 -65 -110 -135 -54 -10 -13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1546 1400 1223 968 757 692 1021 1505 961 677 407 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 33.8 35.7 38.2 40.6 44.8 48.2 51.9 55.6 58.1 59.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.0 54.4 52.8 50.8 48.9 44.6 39.1 32.3 24.7 17.9 12.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 24 26 29 27 26 27 29 26 19 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 18 CX,CY: 10/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -23. -29. -35. -39. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -23. -28. -29. -31. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 7. 11. 11. 8. 10. 12. 8. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 17. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -4. -3. -9. -22. -33. -35. -38. -48. -50. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 31.8 56.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/31/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 2( 6) 3( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 65 66 67 61 48 37 35 32 22 20 16 18HR AGO 70 69 68 69 70 64 51 40 38 35 25 23 19 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 68 62 49 38 36 33 23 21 17 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 55 42 31 29 26 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT