* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 70 70 70 66 52 32 29 30 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 71 70 70 70 66 52 32 29 30 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 71 70 71 71 61 47 39 38 40 40 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 23 24 33 42 37 52 58 43 26 24 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -2 1 4 9 5 12 9 3 -4 0 5 3 SHEAR DIR 208 205 209 194 188 167 196 202 197 207 195 194 201 SST (C) 24.1 24.3 23.8 23.0 23.6 19.6 13.8 11.5 9.6 10.1 9.4 8.3 7.4 POT. INT. (KT) 101 103 101 97 101 83 73 71 69 69 67 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 94 93 91 94 78 70 69 68 67 65 64 64 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -53.0 -52.5 -50.2 -48.4 -48.1 -48.6 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 2.7 3.9 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.3 0.9 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 48 45 46 48 54 50 56 59 62 63 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 31 34 38 43 45 40 34 41 42 39 28 21 850 MB ENV VOR 70 83 115 158 197 222 179 191 269 331 332 330 281 200 MB DIV 108 90 56 20 42 65 60 82 58 49 49 0 -57 700-850 TADV 32 11 1 -9 -42 -89 -100 -153 -125 0 -11 -65 -33 LAND (KM) 1588 1536 1422 1218 988 651 832 1288 1179 812 589 500 670 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 32.0 33.5 35.8 38.0 43.0 47.0 50.7 54.4 57.6 60.3 62.5 64.5 LONG(DEG W) 57.3 55.9 54.5 52.6 50.6 46.7 41.8 35.4 28.1 21.2 15.0 9.2 3.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 23 27 28 28 27 28 27 23 19 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 15 CX,CY: 5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 772 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -18. -25. -32. -38. -43. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -23. -30. -31. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 6. 0. 7. 8. 4. -10. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. 16. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -6. -4. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -5. -5. -8. -23. -43. -46. -45. -47. -60. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.4 57.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 4( 12) 3( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 71 70 70 70 66 52 32 29 30 28 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 73 73 69 55 35 32 33 31 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 71 67 53 33 30 31 29 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 61 47 27 24 25 23 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT