* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 80 79 78 75 64 49 42 41 39 34 26 V (KT) LAND 85 83 80 79 78 75 64 49 42 41 39 34 26 V (KT) LGEM 85 81 79 78 77 71 56 46 42 44 45 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 22 25 33 35 47 53 43 16 14 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 2 5 17 3 8 4 -1 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 255 224 206 198 194 186 187 194 181 166 190 193 191 SST (C) 25.5 24.0 24.3 23.3 23.1 18.8 15.7 15.3 10.8 10.3 9.6 8.8 7.0 POT. INT. (KT) 111 100 104 98 98 81 75 74 70 70 69 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 91 95 91 91 77 71 71 68 68 67 65 64 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.6 -55.6 -55.3 -54.6 -53.4 -52.8 -51.6 -50.2 -47.1 -47.3 -48.5 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.3 4.0 5.1 3.4 2.1 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 53 47 45 46 50 50 58 61 63 73 74 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 32 31 34 37 44 43 39 42 43 40 35 31 850 MB ENV VOR 49 66 93 110 153 241 244 223 276 348 362 352 299 200 MB DIV 83 100 91 64 27 40 57 69 71 85 66 -1 -21 700-850 TADV 34 34 15 -7 -14 -54 -51 -72 -103 24 13 -23 -62 LAND (KM) 1422 1612 1522 1383 1201 731 661 1019 1495 977 746 559 570 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 30.5 32.0 34.0 35.9 40.9 45.5 48.9 51.7 55.1 59.4 62.1 63.6 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 57.1 56.1 54.3 52.5 48.8 44.7 39.1 32.1 25.0 18.4 12.1 6.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 21 25 27 28 26 26 27 28 24 18 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -23. -31. -40. -47. -53. -57. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -23. -27. -26. -24. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 12. 9. 12. 13. 9. 3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -7. -10. -21. -36. -43. -44. -46. -51. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 29.0 58.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 450.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 7( 16) 6( 21) 5( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 80 79 78 75 64 49 42 41 39 34 26 18HR AGO 85 84 81 80 79 76 65 50 43 42 40 35 27 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 79 76 65 50 43 42 40 35 27 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 71 60 45 38 37 35 30 22 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 63 52 37 30 29 27 22 DIS IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 63 52 37 30 29 27 22 DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT