* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 87 85 84 80 71 57 40 34 34 32 28 V (KT) LAND 90 89 87 85 84 80 71 57 40 34 34 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 86 83 82 79 67 51 41 42 47 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 14 19 23 41 44 49 48 36 23 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 1 5 16 18 11 6 4 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 269 257 230 212 209 194 186 185 185 181 171 190 201 SST (C) 26.5 25.4 24.4 24.6 24.0 23.7 22.0 15.1 12.1 10.1 10.0 9.2 6.4 POT. INT. (KT) 120 109 103 106 102 102 93 75 71 70 69 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 98 93 97 95 94 86 72 69 68 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.0 -55.4 -55.6 -55.4 -53.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -50.8 -49.0 -48.9 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 2.7 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 57 55 49 46 45 55 62 69 74 76 74 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 32 34 41 43 39 35 36 37 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 56 51 69 90 109 177 264 246 264 324 368 361 307 200 MB DIV 61 79 100 91 66 24 66 100 105 85 67 41 29 700-850 TADV 26 32 29 13 11 -43 -38 -75 -145 -124 -43 -46 -81 LAND (KM) 1316 1456 1596 1557 1436 1019 740 977 1460 1028 698 506 652 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 29.2 30.3 31.9 33.5 37.8 42.8 47.3 51.2 54.8 58.0 61.2 64.3 LONG(DEG W) 58.3 57.6 57.0 55.6 54.1 50.1 45.5 39.8 33.0 25.8 18.5 12.3 6.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 16 20 24 29 31 30 29 27 24 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -21. -30. -40. -48. -54. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -13. -18. -23. -26. -28. -27. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 12. 10. 4. 5. 7. 4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -19. -33. -50. -56. -56. -58. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 28.0 58.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 492.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 9( 28) 7( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 87 85 84 80 71 57 40 34 34 32 28 18HR AGO 90 89 87 85 84 80 71 57 40 34 34 32 28 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 83 79 70 56 39 33 33 31 27 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 75 66 52 35 29 29 27 23 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 67 58 44 27 21 21 19 15 IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 67 58 44 27 21 21 19 15 IN 12HR 90 89 87 78 72 68 59 45 28 22 22 20 16