* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 87 85 86 79 69 51 41 36 32 24 V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 87 85 86 79 69 51 41 36 32 24 V (KT) LGEM 90 92 91 87 83 81 76 62 47 42 43 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 16 12 20 29 44 54 51 46 32 17 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 5 3 5 24 12 12 3 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 289 267 250 230 206 202 204 185 186 184 165 183 200 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.1 24.4 24.8 23.4 23.0 18.6 14.7 10.3 11.3 10.0 9.1 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 116 102 107 99 98 81 74 70 70 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 104 103 92 98 93 91 77 72 69 68 66 65 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.0 -55.8 -55.3 -55.6 -54.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.2 -51.1 -49.3 -48.2 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.2 1.1 2.7 4.1 4.4 4.1 4.4 3.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 55 56 56 51 46 45 59 63 66 71 70 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 30 32 32 39 43 44 40 39 39 35 31 850 MB ENV VOR 72 59 52 65 89 139 240 273 256 288 351 345 302 200 MB DIV 47 59 70 98 94 31 25 59 84 78 83 90 15 700-850 TADV 8 21 27 26 16 0 -12 -51 -91 -114 -76 -11 -22 LAND (KM) 1214 1311 1408 1574 1608 1313 881 834 1210 1279 714 494 413 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.8 28.7 30.0 31.2 34.9 39.7 44.4 48.8 52.4 55.4 58.4 61.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.4 58.1 57.8 56.8 55.9 52.2 48.0 42.9 36.5 29.1 20.8 14.3 9.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 12 15 20 26 30 30 30 29 26 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -8. -13. -19. -28. -37. -45. -52. -57. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -24. -27. -28. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -9. -8. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 12. 15. 10. 9. 8. 4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -11. -21. -39. -49. -54. -58. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 26.9 58.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 504.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/30/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 10( 30) 10( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 89 87 85 86 79 69 51 41 36 32 24 18HR AGO 90 89 88 86 84 85 78 68 50 40 35 31 23 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 82 83 76 66 48 38 33 29 21 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 79 72 62 44 34 29 25 17 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 72 65 55 37 27 22 18 DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 73 66 56 38 28 23 19 DIS IN 12HR 90 90 89 80 74 70 63 53 35 25 20 16 DIS