* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 66 68 73 78 80 70 61 55 48 44 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 66 68 73 78 80 70 61 55 48 44 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 66 67 69 71 72 68 58 48 42 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 20 16 16 13 22 39 40 54 62 60 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -2 0 0 4 2 2 15 19 13 10 4 4 SHEAR DIR 352 331 315 282 254 208 196 199 204 215 240 257 299 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 24.0 23.8 23.8 22.3 21.9 17.3 16.8 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 119 119 119 100 101 101 93 90 75 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 104 104 104 105 92 92 92 84 82 70 67 67 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -55.9 -55.2 -55.5 -54.1 -54.1 -55.3 -56.5 -58.1 -60.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 49 54 58 58 56 38 34 39 41 41 38 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 26 27 28 32 36 41 37 34 34 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 93 81 76 72 63 56 93 152 174 135 -25 -123 -178 200 MB DIV -8 -9 43 62 56 94 70 12 26 18 8 -13 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 5 16 21 6 -27 -21 -16 -37 -66 8 LAND (KM) 1164 1147 1135 1202 1272 1570 1405 1074 899 1051 1402 1689 1495 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.9 26.2 27.1 27.9 30.2 33.7 37.2 40.4 42.9 44.5 45.1 44.2 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.1 58.7 58.8 58.9 57.3 54.4 50.7 46.1 40.9 35.2 30.7 27.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 7 9 10 18 22 23 24 23 19 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -6. -10. -16. -25. -31. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 12. 8. 8. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 15. 5. -4. -10. -17. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.5 57.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 405.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.17 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.0% 12.0% 10.3% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.9% 4.7% 3.7% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 31.0% 25.0% 24.0% 20.0% 25.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 65 66 68 73 78 80 70 61 55 48 44 18HR AGO 65 64 64 65 67 72 77 79 69 60 54 47 43 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 64 69 74 76 66 57 51 44 40 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 62 67 69 59 50 44 37 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT