* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 68 69 74 79 83 82 66 52 48 57 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 68 69 74 79 83 82 66 52 48 57 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 69 70 73 74 74 67 53 45 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 23 20 16 12 17 30 28 41 57 60 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -4 -2 0 3 1 5 13 6 5 14 1 SHEAR DIR 5 354 337 314 285 240 197 189 188 191 210 254 282 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 25.8 24.5 23.5 22.0 20.6 16.4 16.7 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 120 118 118 120 113 105 100 92 86 74 72 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 106 103 101 104 101 96 92 85 80 69 67 71 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.0 -56.4 -56.4 -56.2 -55.7 -55.7 -55.1 -55.1 -55.7 -55.8 -56.3 -60.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 48 51 55 58 57 45 35 38 41 41 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 23 25 26 29 33 37 39 29 23 24 36 850 MB ENV VOR 108 93 76 75 77 47 83 138 133 170 77 29 -158 200 MB DIV -11 -13 -9 39 58 76 87 21 39 35 23 17 -28 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -3 0 5 14 6 -12 -38 -104 -141 -26 -66 LAND (KM) 1249 1212 1184 1191 1201 1411 1526 1223 867 915 1281 1616 1629 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.1 29.0 32.0 35.7 39.8 43.3 45.8 45.7 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.3 58.1 58.5 58.9 58.2 56.0 52.6 48.1 42.5 36.2 31.8 29.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 7 5 7 13 21 25 27 27 20 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 5 6 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -23. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 15. 2. -6. -5. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 17. 1. -13. -17. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.5 56.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 420.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.17 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 15.3% 13.0% 11.2% 9.8% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.4% 5.1% 4.0% 3.4% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 42.0% 35.0% 31.0% 28.0% 18.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 66 68 69 74 79 83 82 66 52 48 57 18HR AGO 65 64 64 66 67 72 77 81 80 64 50 46 55 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 64 69 74 78 77 61 47 43 52 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 61 66 70 69 53 39 35 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT