* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 68 68 71 77 81 87 75 62 46 32 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 68 68 71 77 81 87 75 62 46 32 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 71 71 73 74 75 73 61 49 44 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 20 23 21 17 17 19 28 27 62 82 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -7 -2 -1 1 -3 3 11 9 7 8 10 SHEAR DIR 2 6 353 336 317 266 216 196 187 184 219 246 245 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.3 24.0 23.3 22.4 18.9 16.7 12.5 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 120 117 118 117 101 99 95 82 78 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 111 106 102 103 103 93 92 88 77 74 72 71 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.3 -56.6 -56.3 -55.7 -56.2 -55.4 -56.2 -56.4 -54.7 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 45 46 49 54 57 50 36 37 45 44 55 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 22 23 25 30 32 39 32 26 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 99 100 82 75 70 58 54 84 93 128 79 82 149 200 MB DIV -7 -10 -9 -6 30 52 102 49 21 61 39 8 0 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 -2 0 14 18 -10 -60 -80 -145 -64 -40 LAND (KM) 1392 1296 1210 1203 1202 1322 1571 1292 837 807 1193 1211 492 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.5 26.9 28.4 31.0 35.0 39.7 44.0 47.4 51.2 55.2 LONG(DEG W) 54.8 56.1 57.5 58.1 58.6 58.8 57.2 53.9 49.3 43.5 36.9 27.8 17.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 9 6 7 10 20 27 30 29 32 36 36 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 5 5 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -13. -25. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 7. 15. 6. -1. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 6. 12. 16. 22. 10. -3. -19. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 25.7 54.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 440.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.47 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 15.8% 13.4% 11.6% 10.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.5% 3.9% 1.6% 1.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.6% 5.8% 4.4% 3.7% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 63.0% 55.0% 58.0% 45.0% 35.0% 4.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 68 68 68 71 77 81 87 75 62 46 32 18HR AGO 65 64 65 65 65 68 74 78 84 72 59 43 29 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 61 64 70 74 80 68 55 39 25 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 58 64 68 74 62 49 33 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT