* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 57 61 66 71 78 70 73 64 52 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 57 61 66 71 78 70 73 64 52 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 57 59 63 66 68 69 64 56 47 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 19 23 21 13 17 32 50 56 63 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -6 -3 -4 2 4 23 13 8 19 17 SHEAR DIR 353 1 1 347 330 297 260 208 199 211 228 237 220 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.4 24.7 24.6 23.9 20.9 18.6 15.0 11.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 123 122 119 117 105 107 103 87 81 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 106 110 109 104 102 94 99 95 81 76 74 72 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.9 -55.8 -56.0 -56.3 -56.7 -56.0 -56.0 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -52.4 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 44 46 48 49 54 53 39 32 37 47 40 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 22 22 25 28 30 37 35 41 40 36 850 MB ENV VOR 108 96 98 89 75 55 25 66 105 139 114 43 152 200 MB DIV -18 -13 -18 -21 -9 24 60 78 -5 25 22 -7 47 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -5 -1 -3 6 14 2 -9 -32 -32 -28 0 LAND (KM) 1511 1412 1315 1265 1225 1274 1487 1469 1076 805 934 1437 858 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.9 26.3 27.3 29.4 32.8 37.1 41.0 44.5 48.3 52.3 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.4 55.5 56.5 57.5 58.0 57.5 55.3 51.4 46.9 41.5 33.5 22.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 7 8 15 23 26 26 30 37 39 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 13 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -9. -16. -26. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 4. 12. 9. 16. 14. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 11. 16. 23. 15. 18. 9. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.4 53.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.54 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.27 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.9% 11.4% 10.1% 8.4% 10.4% 7.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.4% 2.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.1% 4.8% 3.7% 3.1% 3.7% 2.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 22.0% 15.0% 10.0% 7.0% 15.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 57 57 61 66 71 78 70 73 64 52 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 56 60 65 70 77 69 72 63 51 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 52 56 61 66 73 65 68 59 47 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 49 54 59 66 58 61 52 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT