* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 63 65 67 73 80 81 69 59 53 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 63 65 67 73 80 81 69 59 53 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 63 65 68 70 71 73 71 60 52 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 15 19 23 21 16 21 38 43 61 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -3 -5 -1 -2 -3 6 18 13 9 17 SHEAR DIR 345 3 11 1 351 327 291 257 226 201 203 209 219 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4 24.5 23.3 24.1 20.7 15.1 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 124 125 122 119 118 104 98 105 88 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 113 112 112 108 104 105 95 91 97 83 73 71 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.3 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 -56.6 -56.8 -55.7 -55.7 -54.3 -54.7 -55.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.8 1.6 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 46 44 46 47 52 55 49 39 41 50 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 22 22 22 23 27 32 35 28 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 120 111 106 103 95 69 54 56 86 124 156 104 103 200 MB DIV -21 -12 -12 -22 -21 10 21 86 51 23 57 65 52 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 1 13 21 2 -30 -57 -107 -96 LAND (KM) 1618 1489 1361 1280 1204 1189 1365 1667 1389 981 883 1299 1187 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.2 24.9 25.1 25.2 26.2 28.0 30.6 34.2 38.4 43.1 46.9 49.7 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.3 54.6 55.6 56.7 57.9 57.5 55.9 53.3 49.0 43.1 35.6 26.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 10 8 7 12 18 24 30 32 33 32 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 13 14 9 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 6. 9. 1. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 18. 25. 26. 14. 4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.4 52.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.55 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 17.9% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.3% 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 43.0% 32.0% 23.0% 14.0% 46.0% 29.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 60 62 63 65 67 73 80 81 69 59 53 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 59 61 63 69 76 77 65 55 49 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 54 56 58 64 71 72 60 50 44 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 48 50 56 63 64 52 42 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT