* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 57 58 60 62 67 75 81 88 80 68 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 57 58 60 62 67 75 81 88 80 68 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 58 60 64 66 69 70 74 75 66 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 13 14 18 19 21 15 16 20 25 22 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -3 0 -2 -5 -3 -2 -3 4 5 8 13 SHEAR DIR 17 347 9 5 2 344 322 279 222 218 208 204 235 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.8 25.8 24.0 23.1 24.0 19.4 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 121 120 122 119 121 112 101 98 105 85 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 109 109 110 104 105 100 92 91 98 80 72 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.6 -56.7 -56.7 -56.4 -56.5 -57.0 -57.1 -56.3 -56.0 -56.1 -56.8 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 6 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 47 49 46 44 48 55 54 44 36 49 48 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 20 20 19 19 20 25 28 34 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 99 101 111 106 97 90 57 41 66 93 87 106 144 200 MB DIV -15 -56 -30 -26 -17 -26 21 35 86 30 48 71 56 700-850 TADV 13 -5 -5 2 -3 -2 2 12 12 -13 -19 -71 -29 LAND (KM) 1892 1755 1619 1478 1340 1202 1238 1402 1543 1311 952 928 1292 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.2 25.9 26.0 27.1 28.9 31.5 34.9 39.1 44.1 49.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.9 51.3 52.6 54.1 55.6 57.5 58.3 58.2 56.7 53.3 47.7 41.8 35.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 11 7 7 12 18 26 32 35 35 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 6 4 7 5 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -1. 2. 8. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 17. 25. 31. 38. 30. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.1 49.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.60 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.32 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 14.6% 11.5% 0.0% 12.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 8.6% 6.0% 1.4% 0.9% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 9.0% 6.9% 4.3% 0.3% 4.7% 4.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 57 58 60 62 67 75 81 88 80 68 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 54 56 58 63 71 77 84 76 64 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 51 53 58 66 72 79 71 59 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 43 45 50 58 64 71 63 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT