* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 58 58 58 60 61 62 65 67 60 55 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 58 58 58 60 61 62 65 67 60 55 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 60 62 64 66 65 64 63 66 66 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 1 8 13 17 18 26 18 15 8 17 42 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 1 -2 -1 -2 -5 -3 -3 3 12 11 19 SHEAR DIR 178 43 21 16 7 357 334 308 296 249 169 213 228 SST (C) 26.0 26.4 26.5 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.7 24.2 23.6 23.5 21.8 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 114 119 120 125 121 122 119 121 101 100 101 94 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 107 109 113 109 107 103 106 92 93 95 90 75 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -56.9 -56.9 -56.8 -56.7 -56.5 -56.9 -57.3 -57.5 -58.0 -58.0 -57.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 6 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 50 46 47 49 45 47 49 54 51 37 26 33 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 21 19 18 17 16 15 13 13 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 101 101 107 112 102 88 69 33 -4 30 29 2 123 200 MB DIV 15 15 -53 -46 -35 -42 0 8 40 64 30 6 6 700-850 TADV 14 15 -2 -5 -4 -6 -3 4 1 -3 -25 -54 -137 LAND (KM) 2102 1965 1829 1675 1522 1346 1232 1301 1594 1474 1086 938 1356 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.9 26.0 26.2 27.4 30.0 33.2 37.3 42.3 48.2 LONG(DEG W) 47.7 49.1 50.5 52.0 53.4 55.6 57.3 57.7 56.6 53.9 49.5 43.0 34.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 11 9 6 10 16 24 31 39 41 HEAT CONTENT 2 5 7 7 5 7 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 10. 11. 12. 15. 17. 11. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.4 47.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.17 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.60 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 16.8% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.5% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 3.2% 3.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 8.1% 5.6% 0.2% 0.1% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 58 58 58 60 61 62 65 67 60 55 18HR AGO 50 49 52 54 54 54 56 57 58 61 63 56 51 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 48 48 50 51 52 55 57 50 45 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 40 42 43 44 47 49 42 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT