* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 55 59 64 68 72 79 87 82 75 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 55 59 64 68 72 79 87 82 75 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 49 52 59 65 69 70 73 74 64 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 11 1 7 13 14 20 21 15 10 33 32 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 3 2 -3 0 -4 0 3 2 3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 169 173 314 325 342 354 328 314 273 217 222 225 252 SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.8 25.9 24.9 23.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 120 124 127 127 125 121 121 114 106 98 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 104 108 113 115 113 109 104 105 101 95 87 88 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.5 -57.3 -57.1 -56.9 -56.4 -56.3 -56.6 -56.3 -56.1 -55.8 -56.5 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 54 51 47 48 48 46 51 54 54 50 30 25 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 24 23 22 23 24 26 28 35 32 27 850 MB ENV VOR 95 105 99 110 112 95 86 50 35 43 84 -14 -65 200 MB DIV 25 15 -8 -66 -48 -12 -23 15 46 91 17 14 -17 700-850 TADV 4 5 2 -4 -4 -2 -3 8 18 17 -5 -17 -24 LAND (KM) 2202 2086 1973 1806 1640 1386 1240 1203 1282 1491 1635 1481 1343 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.3 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.6 25.6 26.2 27.4 29.1 31.4 33.4 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.5 47.8 49.1 50.7 52.3 54.8 56.6 57.7 58.0 57.0 54.7 52.0 49.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 15 13 10 6 5 8 12 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 5 8 6 8 8 5 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 8. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 24. 28. 32. 39. 47. 42. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.2 46.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 15.8% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.4% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 51 55 59 64 68 72 79 87 82 75 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 51 55 60 64 68 75 83 78 71 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 48 53 57 61 68 76 71 64 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 38 43 47 51 58 66 61 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT