* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 33 29 27 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 29 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 34 31 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 24 31 32 40 52 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 7 3 7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 260 255 261 254 258 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 25.6 24.6 23.7 22.5 18.0 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 114 108 103 96 76 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 104 100 98 89 71 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 4 3 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 56 50 51 51 48 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 17 17 18 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -22 -28 -16 -2 -24 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 115 113 97 56 48 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 53 84 64 50 30 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -166 -399 -615 -591 -388 -190 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 34.2 36.1 38.4 40.7 43.5 44.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.0 86.8 85.6 82.5 79.3 73.0 70.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 22 27 34 31 18 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 18 CX,CY: 8/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -3. -13. -23. -32. -40. -47. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -16. -17. -16. -15. -13. -9. -5. -1. 3. 6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -13. -13. -19. -28. -34. -38. -42. -48. -54. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 32.2 88.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.18 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.76 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.57 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 234.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 4.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/08/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 34 31 29 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 34 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 34 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT