* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/08/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 69 65 58 46 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 59 46 38 33 29 30 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 60 46 37 33 29 30 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 17 21 29 30 39 59 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 6 8 -3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 277 265 259 259 248 266 276 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 27.9 27.0 25.8 24.9 23.1 19.3 15.2 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 138 127 116 109 98 83 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 124 115 106 100 90 78 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -52.2 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 2 6 4 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 67 62 58 56 51 46 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 18 15 14 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 -1 -6 -15 -26 1 -38 -18 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 59 46 73 76 63 36 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 25 17 35 66 16 44 31 -114 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 17 -27 -166 -389 -546 -410 -135 13 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 30.7 32.2 34.0 35.8 39.5 42.2 44.6 47.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.1 88.6 88.0 86.5 84.9 80.1 73.1 66.1 59.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 19 22 25 28 29 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 26 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 17 CX,CY: -2/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 815 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -17. -21. -24. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -23. -26. -29. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -1. -5. -12. -24. -36. -53. -59. -63. -68. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.1 89.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/08/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.16 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.45 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 308.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.4% 11.7% 8.3% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 7.9% 4.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 7.5% 5.4% 3.4% 999.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/08/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/08/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 59 46 38 33 29 30 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 56 48 43 39 40 35 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 58 53 49 50 45 41 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 51 52 47 43 22 22 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT