* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 84 86 86 77 68 56 40 33 28 22 19 V (KT) LAND 75 81 84 73 55 36 30 29 29 29 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 86 85 56 36 30 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 14 16 19 30 33 45 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 2 0 0 0 8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 315 295 286 272 255 266 260 261 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 28.8 27.9 27.0 24.9 23.6 21.2 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 163 151 138 127 108 100 90 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 164 152 137 124 115 98 91 83 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 4 1 4 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 71 65 63 53 49 44 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 20 21 16 15 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 36 25 6 7 -11 6 -43 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 66 87 68 60 58 67 40 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 12 21 22 22 63 50 32 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 402 209 24 -11 -162 -560 -498 -141 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 27.3 28.9 30.5 32.1 35.6 38.5 41.5 44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.6 89.4 89.0 88.5 85.3 81.3 75.2 67.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 17 16 16 19 22 25 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 77 33 19 15 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 24 CX,CY: -9/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -11. -17. -20. -22. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -18. -19. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -6. -9. -14. -17. -17. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 11. 2. -7. -19. -35. -42. -47. -53. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 25.7 87.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 11.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.54 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.46 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.32 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.45 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 258.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.0% 40.9% 27.8% 20.6% 14.3% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 31.4% 34.8% 23.6% 12.2% 11.2% 5.7% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 47.5% 34.2% 33.2% 13.2% 12.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 35.6% 36.6% 28.2% 15.3% 12.5% 6.5% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 84 73 55 36 30 29 29 29 29 30 30 18HR AGO 75 74 77 66 48 29 23 22 22 22 22 23 23 12HR AGO 75 72 71 60 42 23 17 16 16 16 16 17 17 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 47 28 22 21 21 21 21 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 84 75 69 65 59 58 58 58 58 59 59