* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 78 83 86 87 83 74 66 50 37 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 78 83 86 87 45 33 29 30 22 26 28 DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 80 88 91 89 46 32 29 30 31 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 13 14 17 24 33 38 49 62 71 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -1 0 -2 2 4 1 -6 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 312 293 291 275 261 262 260 277 280 271 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.5 28.9 28.0 26.1 24.3 23.0 19.1 15.7 16.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 163 152 139 118 104 97 82 74 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 164 163 153 138 124 106 94 88 76 70 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -52.8 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 5 5 2 3 0 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 75 68 60 52 48 46 45 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 20 18 14 14 10 10 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 29 27 21 -5 -9 -15 -8 -32 -7 48 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 41 55 73 49 55 84 88 9 30 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 14 5 22 25 40 58 66 5 3 -105 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 236 430 218 86 0 -317 -569 -316 -88 9 -11 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 25.5 27.3 28.9 30.4 33.4 36.9 39.8 42.0 44.0 45.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.5 88.4 88.5 88.5 86.9 83.9 78.9 72.5 66.2 60.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 18 15 15 19 23 25 26 24 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 83 108 33 27 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 20 CX,CY: -4/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -11. -16. -17. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 13. 16. 17. 13. 4. -4. -20. -33. -48. -54. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.6 86.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 15.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.62 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.45 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 172.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.0% 47.6% 36.7% 31.2% 18.6% 15.6% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 41.2% 48.0% 34.7% 19.1% 18.1% 17.4% 3.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 50.9% 43.2% 42.2% 18.8% 17.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 42.7% 46.3% 37.8% 23.0% 18.2% 11.2% 5.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/07/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 78 83 86 87 45 33 29 30 22 26 28 DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 74 77 78 36 24 20 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 70 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 70 78 83 74 68 64 52 48 49 41 45 47 19