* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/06/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 60 67 69 68 68 55 43 39 36 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 60 67 43 32 29 29 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 56 60 68 44 32 29 29 31 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 4 7 7 7 12 19 26 45 56 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 0 0 2 2 4 9 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 67 352 320 311 281 246 278 266 264 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.7 28.5 26.8 25.0 23.1 19.5 17.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 165 164 167 166 146 126 110 97 81 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 174 166 161 162 156 133 114 100 88 75 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 5 7 3 4 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 77 75 65 62 55 46 42 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 20 20 19 17 18 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 97 65 30 34 17 -7 -16 2 -42 -33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 78 69 35 44 76 49 31 50 -6 33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 0 12 14 5 19 28 58 43 7 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 223 67 152 338 302 31 -223 -412 -207 -27 170 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 21.2 22.9 24.7 26.4 29.4 32.5 35.7 38.9 41.1 42.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.2 87.2 88.0 88.9 88.9 86.6 82.8 77.8 72.5 67.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 19 19 16 16 20 24 24 22 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 109 55 38 50 30 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 17 CX,CY: -5/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 1. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -7. -7. -13. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 24. 23. 23. 10. -2. -6. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.4 85.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.85 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.33 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.82 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 52.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 40.9% 21.1% 10.3% 8.6% 19.1% 23.9% 18.1% Logistic: 10.1% 25.4% 13.1% 4.0% 3.0% 18.9% 20.5% 4.9% Bayesian: 5.5% 44.3% 30.1% 7.2% 1.9% 2.9% 2.7% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 36.8% 21.5% 7.2% 4.5% 13.6% 15.7% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/06/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 56 60 67 43 32 29 29 20 16 DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 48 51 55 62 38 27 24 24 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 48 55 31 20 17 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 46 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT