* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/06/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 48 52 54 60 65 70 71 66 57 45 33 V (KT) LAND 40 43 48 52 51 57 62 46 33 29 29 31 19 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 50 50 57 63 48 33 29 29 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 9 10 9 6 5 12 24 40 61 65 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 -2 0 -3 2 0 3 5 -3 -5 -10 SHEAR DIR 302 102 80 83 62 43 293 241 239 243 260 276 288 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.5 29.4 29.7 28.9 27.4 25.2 23.8 21.9 16.6 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 170 163 162 166 152 132 111 101 91 74 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 173 171 164 160 157 138 119 101 93 83 70 72 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -52.5 -53.6 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 8 6 7 3 4 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 84 83 82 79 77 75 66 64 56 53 48 47 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 18 19 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 190 175 143 109 73 17 -1 -13 -35 15 -17 -23 -9 200 MB DIV 92 96 99 77 57 50 56 84 66 58 38 35 14 700-850 TADV 3 0 -11 -10 -2 -3 8 24 37 19 -3 14 26 LAND (KM) 35 186 169 27 68 378 58 -134 -511 -514 -146 54 70 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.6 18.9 20.6 22.2 25.7 28.6 31.7 35.1 38.2 40.9 42.4 42.9 LONG(DEG W) 84.8 85.3 85.9 86.8 87.8 89.5 89.9 88.8 86.0 81.6 75.7 70.2 65.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 17 19 19 17 15 18 22 25 24 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 32 82 107 49 18 27 29 19 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 4. -5. -16. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 14. 20. 25. 30. 31. 26. 17. 5. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.2 84.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 57.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.49 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.89 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.54 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 37.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.90 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 49.2% 32.4% 11.7% 9.1% 26.3% 37.1% 32.5% Logistic: 20.0% 57.1% 38.5% 16.6% 14.8% 45.1% 42.9% 22.5% Bayesian: 4.4% 53.9% 36.9% 6.0% 1.6% 14.8% 10.1% 1.3% Consensus: 12.3% 53.4% 35.9% 11.4% 8.5% 28.7% 30.0% 18.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/06/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 48 52 51 57 62 46 33 29 29 31 19 18HR AGO 40 39 44 48 47 53 58 42 29 25 25 27 15 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 39 45 50 34 21 17 17 19 DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 35 40 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT