* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 45 49 52 57 62 63 62 54 43 33 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 51 56 49 35 29 29 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 45 46 52 47 34 29 29 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 4 8 8 4 5 8 16 20 40 55 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 0 -3 0 2 2 4 2 4 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 236 191 104 100 87 338 301 246 258 248 263 282 289 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.8 29.5 29.6 29.5 28.2 26.2 24.7 23.1 20.2 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 173 168 163 165 162 141 119 108 97 82 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 173 173 167 161 159 151 126 107 100 88 74 68 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -53.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 7 7 8 4 7 3 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 81 80 77 73 66 63 59 50 48 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 19 16 15 15 13 13 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 183 190 175 145 112 32 20 -12 -39 -13 -11 -19 -17 200 MB DIV 122 109 113 92 78 37 64 49 68 55 33 1 9 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -8 -19 -12 17 7 16 53 22 25 -1 -9 LAND (KM) -58 73 213 138 11 265 222 -7 -247 -536 -269 -71 19 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.6 17.8 19.2 20.6 23.9 27.1 30.0 32.9 36.1 39.6 41.3 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 84.5 84.9 85.3 86.1 87.0 88.7 90.0 90.1 88.4 84.4 78.4 73.7 70.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 16 17 17 16 15 19 26 25 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 92 65 89 105 27 32 31 25 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 4. -4. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -10. -16. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 22. 27. 28. 27. 19. 8. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 84.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.90 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 75.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.48 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.95 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.63 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 20.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.92 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 49.1% 31.1% 10.3% 8.8% 23.1% 36.5% 48.0% Logistic: 14.8% 60.4% 40.9% 18.0% 10.7% 37.7% 59.5% 51.5% Bayesian: 1.2% 15.1% 4.6% 0.3% 0.0% 1.1% 5.4% 4.5% Consensus: 8.3% 41.6% 25.5% 9.5% 6.5% 20.7% 33.8% 34.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/06/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 47 51 51 56 49 35 29 29 29 31 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 46 46 51 44 30 24 24 24 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 39 44 37 23 17 17 17 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 29 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT