* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/05/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 51 56 59 64 65 61 59 46 32 V (KT) LAND 35 32 38 42 47 50 53 58 47 33 29 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 37 39 42 43 48 54 48 33 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 4 6 9 4 11 8 7 14 25 56 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 0 0 0 3 5 4 10 0 -9 SHEAR DIR 244 227 190 125 119 39 329 313 267 277 251 266 280 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.8 29.4 29.7 29.2 27.8 25.6 24.0 22.7 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 173 173 168 160 166 157 136 114 102 93 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 172 173 173 165 154 156 142 122 104 93 84 75 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -52.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 8 7 8 5 5 0 1 700-500 MB RH 82 84 83 80 80 79 79 73 70 60 57 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 19 19 19 17 16 17 16 13 12 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 172 199 205 188 157 82 23 -17 -26 -55 -11 -31 -38 200 MB DIV 153 133 118 96 78 41 41 53 28 47 50 8 7 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -7 -9 -15 6 1 21 28 49 51 13 1 LAND (KM) -85 -24 90 225 130 60 397 123 -58 -387 -561 -320 -215 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.6 16.7 18.1 19.4 22.1 25.1 28.0 30.9 34.1 37.7 40.4 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.4 84.8 85.5 86.2 87.5 88.8 89.5 89.3 87.1 82.8 78.6 74.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 15 15 15 16 15 16 22 23 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 51 92 65 97 103 18 35 34 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. -1. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -10. -14. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 21. 24. 30. 30. 27. 24. 11. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 84.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/05/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 12.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.81 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 81.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.52 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.97 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.69 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 21.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.91 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 54.7% 39.0% 12.2% 9.3% 27.3% 37.5% 55.8% Logistic: 999.0% 75.4% 58.0% 33.4% 21.3% 47.3% 70.2% 78.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 16.1% 5.8% 0.3% 0.0% 4.2% 20.8% 58.5% Consensus: 999.0% 48.7% 34.3% 15.3% 10.2% 26.3% 42.9% 64.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/05/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/05/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 38 42 47 50 53 58 47 33 29 29 30 18HR AGO 35 34 40 44 49 52 55 60 49 35 31 31 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 40 43 46 51 40 26 22 22 23 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 33 36 41 30 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT