* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/05/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 55 59 62 63 64 64 59 48 V (KT) LAND 35 30 29 34 38 46 49 52 52 36 30 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 30 29 33 35 39 44 49 46 36 29 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 8 8 1 7 14 18 11 12 18 39 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 5 -3 1 0 1 4 3 7 -8 SHEAR DIR 233 226 240 250 339 52 344 337 307 283 264 258 280 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.6 29.5 29.7 28.3 26.4 24.9 23.7 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 172 173 173 164 162 166 143 121 108 99 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 170 172 173 173 160 154 155 129 108 97 89 82 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 7 7 7 5 7 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 85 83 84 83 82 80 80 78 75 70 70 64 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 146 161 190 194 173 92 17 -7 -47 -59 -43 -30 -58 200 MB DIV 161 175 140 97 95 72 31 54 39 71 60 33 -10 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -6 -7 -14 11 5 22 60 34 23 14 LAND (KM) 0 -66 -28 90 224 38 211 289 10 -233 -525 -466 -258 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.7 17.9 20.7 23.5 26.5 29.7 32.8 35.7 38.5 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 83.5 83.9 84.3 84.8 85.3 86.6 88.1 89.2 89.5 88.0 84.7 80.9 77.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 13 14 15 15 16 16 18 20 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 11 51 92 65 92 57 31 27 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. -1. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. 24. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.9 83.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/05/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 12.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.80 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.67 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.97 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.77 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 15.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.92 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 56.3% 40.3% 10.6% 9.0% 31.4% 38.7% 47.9% Logistic: 999.0% 77.7% 59.2% 28.2% 14.9% 59.3% 75.3% 79.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 9.7% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 2.7% 10.0% 46.1% Consensus: 999.0% 47.9% 34.6% 13.0% 8.0% 31.1% 41.3% 57.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/05/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/05/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 30 29 34 38 46 49 52 52 36 30 28 29 18HR AGO 35 34 33 38 42 50 53 56 56 40 34 32 33 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 40 48 51 54 54 38 32 30 31 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 37 40 43 43 27 21 19 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT