* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162017 10/05/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 46 53 52 52 54 54 56 50 V (KT) LAND 30 31 28 28 33 42 41 45 45 47 36 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 28 28 31 35 33 39 41 43 35 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 14 10 5 9 9 14 18 9 12 7 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 1 2 3 3 1 5 2 6 0 SHEAR DIR 246 232 221 219 226 76 70 9 1 3 360 261 258 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.4 29.7 29.6 28.5 27.5 25.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 171 172 173 171 160 165 163 145 132 112 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 168 171 172 173 170 153 155 148 129 118 101 89 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 8 7 8 7 7 1 700-500 MB RH 86 86 86 86 84 81 78 77 74 73 64 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 16 16 12 10 11 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 141 145 147 174 180 125 64 1 -28 -46 -65 -29 -37 200 MB DIV 151 160 188 140 107 83 39 32 42 45 49 45 1 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -7 -11 -8 -7 5 11 39 34 8 LAND (KM) 43 16 -23 -21 53 200 -14 280 260 116 -134 -391 -505 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.1 15.2 16.3 18.9 21.4 24.1 26.8 29.3 31.7 34.7 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.1 83.4 83.6 84.0 84.3 85.6 87.3 88.4 88.8 88.0 86.1 83.8 81.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 9 11 13 15 14 14 13 13 16 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 50 33 76 51 67 113 9 36 30 17 13 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -4. -7. -7. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 23. 22. 22. 24. 24. 26. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 83.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/05/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.6 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 149.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.85 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -5.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.94 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 29.0% 14.1% 7.0% 5.4% 13.8% 19.5% 38.9% Logistic: 5.2% 52.0% 25.3% 6.4% 2.8% 30.7% 63.6% 77.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 6.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 4.1% 49.6% Consensus: 3.7% 29.1% 13.5% 4.5% 2.7% 14.9% 29.0% 55.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/05/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/05/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 28 28 33 42 41 45 45 47 36 30 28 18HR AGO 30 29 26 26 31 40 39 43 43 45 34 28 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 31 40 39 43 43 45 34 28 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 34 33 37 37 39 28 22 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT