* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162017 10/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 52 62 62 61 57 53 53 48 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 33 31 42 51 52 51 46 35 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 32 31 39 45 49 52 53 39 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 11 11 11 5 8 13 20 23 22 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 0 0 -1 1 2 4 1 0 1 4 15 SHEAR DIR 221 226 218 206 198 169 94 5 346 344 338 336 266 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.6 29.5 29.7 28.6 27.1 25.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 171 172 173 164 162 165 148 128 112 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 170 171 170 172 173 159 151 152 134 114 98 90 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 8 7 8 7 7 4 6 700-500 MB RH 86 87 86 84 84 80 78 79 80 78 73 65 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 15 16 18 15 13 12 10 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 120 142 146 159 176 166 105 16 -7 -42 -36 -29 -34 200 MB DIV 143 156 158 169 139 86 71 -2 49 30 66 45 42 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -6 -11 -15 -2 2 40 24 56 LAND (KM) 100 59 21 -48 -2 233 51 226 350 172 -202 -285 -365 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 18.0 20.9 23.6 26.2 28.9 31.9 34.3 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 82.6 83.0 83.3 83.6 84.0 85.0 86.4 87.5 87.9 87.0 84.6 82.7 81.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 15 15 13 14 16 16 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 50 51 37 69 45 90 61 48 68 18 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -8. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 32. 32. 31. 27. 23. 23. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 82.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.78 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.5 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 153.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.87 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -9.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.94 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 49.9% 29.6% 9.5% 7.9% 18.5% 35.2% 48.8% Logistic: 13.2% 77.7% 56.3% 29.4% 13.5% 43.1% 73.9% 81.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 26.8% 7.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 4.2% 40.3% Consensus: 7.5% 51.5% 31.2% 13.0% 7.1% 20.7% 37.8% 56.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/05/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/05/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 33 31 42 51 52 51 46 35 29 28 18HR AGO 30 29 33 28 26 37 46 47 46 41 30 24 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 21 19 30 39 40 39 34 23 17 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 29 38 39 38 33 22 16 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT