* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162017 10/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 54 67 73 72 69 66 58 55 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 36 32 37 50 55 55 52 43 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 36 32 36 43 48 52 56 49 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 8 9 12 9 3 16 22 19 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 0 2 1 7 4 3 0 8 5 7 SHEAR DIR 327 297 219 207 193 206 107 82 339 358 338 338 288 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.5 29.7 29.1 27.8 26.2 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 171 173 170 162 165 155 136 118 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 170 170 169 171 173 168 154 153 141 122 103 93 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -52.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 7 6 8 7 8 8 8 5 7 700-500 MB RH 83 85 86 84 84 81 78 78 78 74 71 63 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 17 21 21 19 17 17 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 106 125 150 156 166 202 142 55 -3 -34 -24 -59 -15 200 MB DIV 122 137 141 152 160 135 96 15 23 67 49 11 30 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -9 -4 5 11 11 48 41 LAND (KM) 140 75 21 -17 -85 70 170 89 371 275 -52 -282 -353 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.5 16.5 19.5 22.3 24.9 27.6 30.6 33.3 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 82.3 82.8 83.3 83.6 84.0 84.7 85.8 86.9 87.4 86.9 85.4 83.6 81.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 8 13 15 14 13 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 55 49 40 76 51 65 110 37 101 35 20 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 27.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 8. 5. 1. 1. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 37. 43. 42. 39. 36. 28. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 82.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.91 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.8 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.81 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -11.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.95 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 51.6% 32.9% 9.8% 8.3% 19.7% 37.0% 63.3% Logistic: 19.9% 81.3% 62.2% 35.4% 13.7% 54.0% 79.3% 87.3% Bayesian: 2.5% 46.0% 10.7% 0.5% 0.2% 3.7% 15.8% 61.3% Consensus: 10.3% 59.6% 35.3% 15.2% 7.4% 25.8% 44.0% 70.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/04/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/04/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 36 32 37 50 55 55 52 43 32 28 18HR AGO 30 29 33 31 27 32 45 50 50 47 38 27 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 20 25 38 43 43 40 31 20 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT