* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162017 10/04/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 44 53 63 66 68 63 60 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 30 43 53 56 57 53 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 29 31 34 29 36 40 44 47 48 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 1 6 8 14 9 9 12 33 32 23 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -5 -2 -3 1 0 8 0 1 5 5 SHEAR DIR 343 341 231 209 216 202 191 100 7 339 355 356 43 SST (C) 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 29.8 29.6 29.4 28.3 27.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 170 170 172 173 168 164 160 143 127 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 170 170 170 170 172 173 163 155 147 128 111 98 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 7 6 8 8 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 84 83 85 85 85 85 80 79 77 76 71 63 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 12 15 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 105 122 144 152 168 152 84 1 -26 -77 -73 -45 200 MB DIV 99 112 123 128 159 157 101 62 15 42 11 47 28 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -3 -9 2 19 8 53 43 LAND (KM) 224 159 97 48 0 -2 235 125 234 379 48 -189 -249 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 11 14 15 15 14 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 54 56 49 52 11 45 88 101 80 103 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 19. 24. 29. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 6. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 28. 38. 41. 43. 38. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 81.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/04/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.94 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.24 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.0 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.73 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -4.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.94 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 36.2% 15.3% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 0.0% Logistic: 11.1% 72.4% 47.7% 23.7% 9.0% 42.7% 70.3% 87.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 10.7% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 2.0% 19.0% Consensus: 6.1% 39.8% 22.2% 10.7% 3.0% 14.4% 30.1% 35.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/04/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 SIXTEEN 10/04/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 30 43 53 56 57 53 36 30 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 27 40 50 53 54 50 33 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 21 34 44 47 48 44 27 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT