* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 57 55 55 59 66 68 77 81 85 89 90 V (KT) LAND 65 59 56 55 55 59 66 68 76 81 84 89 90 V (KT) LGEM 65 57 52 50 49 52 56 59 62 68 71 70 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 15 16 19 18 15 15 9 4 4 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 2 0 0 0 1 3 12 11 9 4 SHEAR DIR 123 134 130 120 115 115 116 95 93 168 222 274 2 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.3 29.2 28.8 28.2 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 138 138 142 157 150 141 147 145 150 157 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 140 141 147 165 159 147 151 143 146 152 154 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -53.9 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 62 63 59 58 57 58 59 56 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 11 13 12 12 12 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 47 45 28 4 -14 -23 -14 -10 0 -4 -5 200 MB DIV 89 47 15 21 34 55 75 16 -6 -17 -31 29 84 700-850 TADV 5 8 11 10 8 6 9 6 5 3 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) -87 34 153 275 354 487 661 735 787 816 766 721 675 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.8 9.5 9.4 9.7 10.2 11.0 11.8 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 86.1 87.3 88.6 90.0 92.6 95.6 98.7 101.4 103.2 103.9 104.8 105.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 14 13 14 15 14 11 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 1 11 11 1 4 4 2 25 21 25 36 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -9. -7. -4. 0. 3. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -6. -2. 1. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -10. -10. -6. 1. 3. 12. 16. 20. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 11.0 85.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.47 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.44 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 177.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 9.9% 9.4% 4.2% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.2% 4.2% 3.5% 1.5% 0.0% 2.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/25/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 59 56 55 55 59 66 68 76 81 84 89 90 18HR AGO 65 64 61 60 60 64 71 73 81 86 89 94 95 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 60 64 71 73 81 86 89 94 95 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 59 66 68 76 81 84 89 90 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT