* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 99 99 97 95 88 91 94 91 87 85 84 83 V (KT) LAND 95 68 67 65 62 55 58 61 58 55 52 51 51 V (KT) LGEM 95 68 65 68 70 75 81 87 87 85 83 79 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 17 14 15 23 17 17 17 7 5 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 5 2 0 -1 0 3 8 10 9 6 SHEAR DIR 111 123 130 129 121 113 102 113 94 140 200 169 143 SST (C) 29.0 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.6 29.0 28.4 28.2 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 142 139 136 136 147 154 144 140 145 147 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 144 141 139 139 152 164 150 143 146 145 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 65 64 64 58 57 59 60 57 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 10 11 10 9 8 12 14 13 12 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 59 53 43 49 43 25 -3 -13 -11 -14 -7 5 -16 200 MB DIV 114 92 42 12 19 34 62 78 20 2 -32 -1 42 700-850 TADV 2 5 10 11 9 6 5 9 6 3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) -3 -84 49 181 307 442 599 732 793 819 780 755 728 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.1 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.6 10.6 11.3 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 83.8 85.0 86.3 87.5 88.8 91.1 94.3 97.3 99.9 101.9 103.3 104.3 105.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 13 13 15 14 11 9 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 22 1 9 10 2 4 5 3 25 24 30 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -11. -15. -18. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -14. -14. -10. -7. -2. 4. 9. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -4. -1. -4. -6. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 2. 0. -7. -4. -1. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 11.0 83.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.57 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.87 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.46 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.39 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.18 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 208.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.3% 21.5% 15.9% 11.9% 9.7% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 19.0% 20.8% 12.4% 7.2% 0.0% 2.1% 3.1% Bayesian: 43.0% 40.6% 22.6% 4.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% Consensus: 26.1% 27.7% 17.0% 7.8% 3.9% 4.1% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/24/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 68 67 65 62 55 58 61 58 55 52 51 51 18HR AGO 95 94 93 91 88 81 84 87 84 81 78 77 77 12HR AGO 95 92 91 89 86 79 82 85 82 79 76 75 75 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 82 75 78 81 78 75 72 71 71 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 69 72 75 72 69 66 65 65 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT