* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 100 100 98 93 86 83 87 88 83 78 76 74 V (KT) LAND 95 82 60 57 53 45 42 46 47 42 37 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 95 86 62 58 60 64 70 76 78 77 76 72 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 16 16 17 23 18 15 14 10 6 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 2 -3 1 0 4 8 12 10 11 SHEAR DIR 145 129 134 130 118 118 107 106 112 132 194 182 192 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.2 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 140 136 135 138 152 148 142 145 146 148 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 140 137 136 141 159 155 146 148 147 145 152 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 69 66 66 61 59 60 59 59 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 11 10 8 8 10 13 14 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 63 59 58 50 49 39 12 -9 -16 -17 -14 -1 1 200 MB DIV 76 120 95 47 15 11 19 61 74 37 -35 -21 26 700-850 TADV 2 2 6 10 9 7 5 7 7 6 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 79 -28 -67 28 153 372 530 659 729 753 805 788 701 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.8 9.3 9.2 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.7 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 82.9 84.0 85.0 86.1 87.3 89.5 92.3 95.1 97.8 100.3 102.5 103.7 104.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 11 12 14 14 12 12 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 16 1 8 16 3 4 4 24 21 25 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. -15. -19. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -9. -14. -15. -11. -7. -2. 3. 8. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -5. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 3. -2. -9. -12. -8. -7. -12. -17. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 11.0 82.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 9.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.58 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.92 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.50 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.46 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.18 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 221.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 22.6% 29.4% 22.3% 12.5% 10.3% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 25.9% 29.9% 19.3% 12.2% 0.0% 3.9% 4.0% Bayesian: 53.0% 58.8% 42.4% 5.9% 2.6% 1.9% 0.2% Consensus: 33.8% 39.4% 28.0% 10.2% 4.3% 5.2% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/24/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 0( 17) 0( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 82 60 57 53 45 42 46 47 42 37 35 33 18HR AGO 95 94 72 69 65 57 54 58 59 54 49 47 45 12HR AGO 95 92 91 88 84 76 73 77 78 73 68 66 64 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 81 73 70 74 75 70 65 63 61 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 68 65 69 70 65 60 58 56 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT