* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 84 82 77 73 74 75 73 70 73 73 V (KT) LAND 75 80 69 52 51 45 41 43 43 41 38 42 42 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 72 53 51 54 58 61 63 62 62 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 14 18 21 25 18 19 15 11 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 0 2 -2 0 0 2 8 12 12 8 SHEAR DIR 145 147 141 138 129 120 117 109 114 94 86 83 170 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.3 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.2 28.8 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 150 141 137 136 142 154 148 141 139 149 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 150 142 137 136 145 160 153 142 140 152 163 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 71 70 66 66 61 61 62 62 63 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 11 10 9 10 12 12 12 10 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 58 59 60 57 53 59 38 8 -11 -21 -25 -14 7 200 MB DIV 59 87 118 97 49 11 0 34 83 51 24 -12 36 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 6 10 8 5 5 11 7 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 137 57 -21 -79 37 261 415 534 677 722 745 739 710 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.2 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.5 10.3 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 82.4 83.2 84.0 85.1 86.2 88.3 90.5 93.0 95.7 98.0 99.7 101.7 104.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12 12 10 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 23 25 22 2 9 2 5 4 2 2 24 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -7. -4. 0. 4. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -13. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 9. 7. 2. -2. -1. 0. -2. -5. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 11.2 82.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 10.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.63 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.95 5.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.41 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.51 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.39 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 166.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 21.0% 39.3% 27.6% 19.3% 13.9% 14.1% 14.8% Logistic: 32.6% 41.4% 26.9% 19.6% 0.0% 6.7% 5.1% Bayesian: 37.2% 71.0% 72.5% 17.1% 10.8% 31.8% 4.0% Consensus: 30.3% 50.6% 42.4% 18.7% 8.2% 17.5% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/24/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 69 52 51 45 41 43 43 41 38 42 42 18HR AGO 75 74 63 46 45 39 35 37 37 35 32 36 36 12HR AGO 75 72 71 54 53 47 43 45 45 43 40 44 44 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 58 54 56 56 54 51 55 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT