* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 66 67 65 62 60 65 66 66 67 68 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 66 58 44 41 39 44 45 45 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 63 63 38 44 44 44 44 42 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 15 10 14 26 25 30 23 26 25 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 3 6 6 7 4 SHEAR DIR 131 126 135 126 120 132 133 124 113 126 108 105 108 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.2 28.1 28.8 29.3 28.8 28.2 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 156 153 140 139 149 158 150 141 146 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 151 153 152 140 141 154 163 155 145 150 153 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 71 71 72 67 64 58 57 55 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 14 13 10 9 9 11 12 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 68 59 57 59 61 61 66 38 11 -10 -12 -13 -4 200 MB DIV 73 51 44 76 85 54 21 25 49 92 62 -7 -21 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 2 3 12 9 6 6 8 6 4 0 LAND (KM) 236 199 143 75 -5 7 236 373 505 657 720 757 800 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.1 10.6 10.3 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.8 10.4 LONG(DEG W) 81.0 81.7 82.4 83.1 83.9 85.9 88.4 90.9 93.3 95.8 98.5 100.9 103.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 9 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 35 23 3 2 12 3 6 4 1 26 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -10. -9. -5. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -9. -8. -10. -12. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. 0. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.2 81.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.58 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.75 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.36 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.56 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 116.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 19.6% 14.8% 10.3% 7.5% 10.0% 13.3% Logistic: 7.0% 25.5% 14.6% 8.0% 0.0% 7.5% 7.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 13.9% 5.6% 0.7% 0.3% 10.7% 10.2% Consensus: 5.1% 19.7% 11.7% 6.3% 2.6% 9.4% 10.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/23/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 66 58 44 41 39 44 45 45 46 47 18HR AGO 60 59 61 63 55 41 38 36 41 42 42 43 44 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 50 36 33 31 36 37 37 38 39 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 42 28 25 23 28 29 29 30 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT