* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 62 64 63 59 57 60 63 64 65 65 V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 62 64 47 44 41 45 48 48 50 49 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 60 60 61 47 42 44 45 45 44 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 15 17 11 19 22 26 25 22 23 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -3 0 -2 0 0 2 4 8 9 3 SHEAR DIR 163 133 124 128 122 117 130 116 113 112 117 98 93 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.6 28.1 28.2 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 152 154 146 139 141 153 152 146 139 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 147 148 152 146 141 144 159 157 148 140 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.6 -54.2 -53.8 -54.5 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 71 73 75 72 67 60 57 57 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 17 13 11 10 12 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 65 69 64 59 63 64 59 55 21 -7 -14 -15 -3 200 MB DIV 79 77 46 41 65 82 37 49 68 106 73 19 -18 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 3 2 8 11 7 5 6 7 6 1 LAND (KM) 190 222 196 159 106 -87 114 328 471 593 693 706 707 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.2 10.7 10.2 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.7 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.5 81.0 81.5 82.1 82.8 84.7 86.9 89.5 92.1 94.6 96.9 98.9 100.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 8 10 12 13 13 12 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 35 35 35 31 23 1 13 4 5 4 1 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -12. -12. -13. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. -1. -3. 0. 3. 4. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 11.0 80.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.66 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.53 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 122.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 18.1% 11.7% 11.7% 8.8% 10.3% 15.1% Logistic: 5.0% 24.2% 14.4% 7.2% 0.0% 7.9% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 13.8% 5.2% 0.4% 0.1% 8.4% 11.3% Consensus: 4.3% 18.7% 10.4% 6.5% 3.0% 8.9% 10.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/23/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 61 62 64 47 44 41 45 48 48 50 49 18HR AGO 60 59 59 60 62 45 42 39 43 46 46 48 47 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 59 42 39 36 40 43 43 45 44 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 35 32 29 33 36 36 38 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT