* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 69 71 74 68 63 63 64 64 66 66 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 69 71 62 45 40 40 41 41 43 43 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 66 67 60 44 45 46 45 43 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 13 13 12 11 12 23 23 27 21 19 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 0 2 4 9 10 8 SHEAR DIR 152 152 127 121 124 121 132 131 124 115 122 96 86 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.2 28.2 28.8 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 152 152 153 151 140 140 149 158 155 149 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 148 148 150 150 140 142 151 159 156 151 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 68 70 73 73 69 66 61 60 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 17 17 16 11 8 9 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 56 62 63 59 58 56 50 62 32 16 -7 -13 -10 200 MB DIV 67 80 74 61 48 85 89 58 52 68 87 67 33 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 2 11 10 7 5 9 7 1 LAND (KM) 153 202 208 178 124 -13 15 221 358 454 534 622 649 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.1 10.8 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.2 80.8 81.3 82.0 82.6 84.0 86.0 88.4 90.8 92.8 94.4 96.4 98.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 8 11 12 11 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 34 36 34 28 3 1 4 8 7 3 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -4. -1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -8. -13. -13. -13. -14. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 10.8 80.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.77 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.41 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.49 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 155.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 20.2% 12.1% 12.1% 9.6% 10.9% 16.5% Logistic: 6.5% 25.4% 15.4% 8.2% 0.0% 9.1% 4.6% Bayesian: 1.3% 25.1% 8.5% 0.7% 0.2% 8.9% 16.5% Consensus: 5.1% 23.6% 12.0% 7.0% 3.3% 9.7% 12.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/23/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 67 69 71 62 45 40 40 41 41 43 43 18HR AGO 65 64 65 67 69 60 43 38 38 39 39 41 41 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 65 56 39 34 34 35 35 37 37 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 48 31 26 26 27 27 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT