* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 73 74 77 79 73 67 65 64 64 64 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 73 74 77 79 44 43 41 41 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 71 73 73 75 76 43 46 46 44 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 17 15 15 13 13 21 25 28 19 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -4 -4 0 -2 -2 -2 1 6 12 9 SHEAR DIR 138 139 143 141 128 126 112 131 129 125 119 112 85 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.8 29.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 150 150 152 152 137 135 140 148 155 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 144 147 145 148 151 136 135 140 150 159 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 60 61 64 66 68 71 73 74 71 71 70 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 18 19 19 13 10 11 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 56 57 58 59 64 62 62 49 59 44 30 4 -3 200 MB DIV 78 75 63 65 65 56 77 67 84 91 92 96 109 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 10 10 10 9 9 3 LAND (KM) 89 98 119 170 181 121 3 -38 197 333 436 544 677 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.6 9.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.4 79.8 80.1 80.7 81.3 82.3 83.6 85.5 87.7 89.7 91.4 93.5 95.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 6 5 6 8 10 10 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 48 46 44 40 38 40 31 16 9 1 4 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -7. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 12. 14. 8. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 10.4 79.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.49 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.82 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.45 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.45 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 176.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 30.8% 19.2% 14.5% 10.2% 14.6% 18.5% Logistic: 13.7% 33.2% 21.4% 13.3% 0.0% 12.0% 5.4% Bayesian: 5.4% 40.3% 32.6% 2.6% 1.8% 25.6% 20.6% Consensus: 11.3% 34.8% 24.4% 10.1% 4.0% 17.4% 14.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/22/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 6( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 71 73 74 77 79 44 43 41 41 40 40 18HR AGO 65 64 67 69 70 73 75 40 39 37 37 36 36 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 64 67 69 34 33 31 31 30 30 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 59 61 26 25 23 23 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT