* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 66 68 69 71 74 72 67 62 61 59 61 V (KT) LAND 60 64 66 68 69 71 74 49 42 37 36 34 36 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 68 69 71 73 49 42 41 40 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 18 18 16 14 15 18 22 25 25 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -5 -3 -5 -4 0 3 7 10 SHEAR DIR 137 135 136 143 149 124 138 129 135 132 133 113 106 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.3 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 149 150 152 152 142 136 136 141 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 141 145 145 148 150 140 135 136 142 154 156 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 4 3 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 63 67 71 74 72 72 70 69 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 18 18 19 16 13 11 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 48 53 50 55 65 64 68 64 57 69 46 11 -4 200 MB DIV 79 82 79 65 59 66 63 66 68 62 73 72 86 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 8 10 9 8 8 LAND (KM) 94 89 89 126 172 172 67 -84 59 245 372 484 574 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.0 9.7 9.6 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.4 79.6 80.1 80.5 81.6 82.9 84.6 86.4 88.3 90.2 92.2 94.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 47 42 38 38 31 20 3 10 2 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -13. -12. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 14. 12. 7. 2. 1. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 10.4 79.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.48 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.86 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.31 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.47 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.48 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 205.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 29.6% 17.4% 14.6% 10.0% 16.3% 18.1% Logistic: 15.1% 27.1% 15.4% 10.2% 0.0% 11.7% 5.4% Bayesian: 6.8% 48.1% 26.3% 3.1% 1.9% 27.3% 1.4% Consensus: 11.6% 34.9% 19.7% 9.3% 4.0% 18.4% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/22/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 3( 6) 4( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 66 68 69 71 74 49 42 37 36 34 36 18HR AGO 60 59 61 63 64 66 69 44 37 32 31 29 31 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 59 61 64 39 32 27 26 24 26 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 53 56 31 24 19 18 16 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT