* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 55 56 61 65 70 65 61 57 57 56 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 55 56 61 65 70 49 41 38 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 55 57 59 61 46 39 38 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 18 20 17 13 14 11 19 22 24 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -6 -6 -4 -5 -3 -3 2 0 3 4 10 SHEAR DIR 151 153 144 145 153 135 147 141 146 132 134 130 135 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 149 149 149 151 154 145 140 141 145 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 141 143 144 143 146 152 143 136 138 144 152 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 6 6 4 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 61 58 60 62 63 67 71 69 71 71 75 71 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 17 17 19 18 19 14 11 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 44 48 53 56 60 72 62 69 70 56 70 43 17 200 MB DIV 89 85 74 68 54 92 81 90 86 91 74 66 77 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 1 9 10 10 9 12 LAND (KM) 131 129 126 133 154 224 194 82 -77 37 136 250 376 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.2 10.9 10.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.0 79.1 79.2 79.6 80.0 80.9 81.7 83.0 84.6 86.3 87.7 89.4 91.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 4 5 4 5 7 8 7 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 47 47 47 44 40 35 38 32 22 5 6 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -7. -12. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 15. 20. 15. 11. 7. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 10.7 79.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.58 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.26 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.47 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.56 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 174.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.6% 10.5% 9.9% 7.0% 9.8% 17.6% Logistic: 6.4% 16.4% 8.1% 4.2% 0.0% 7.8% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 20.9% 7.0% 0.5% 0.1% 13.2% 21.5% Consensus: 4.7% 18.0% 8.5% 4.9% 2.4% 10.2% 14.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/22/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 55 56 61 65 70 49 41 38 38 36 18HR AGO 50 49 50 52 53 58 62 67 46 38 35 35 33 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 54 58 63 42 34 31 31 29 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 46 50 55 34 26 23 23 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT