* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 59 62 67 72 79 82 72 64 60 59 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 59 62 67 72 79 82 46 40 37 35 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 56 58 60 64 68 74 76 44 42 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 16 16 16 12 8 10 12 16 22 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -8 -6 -6 -4 -4 -5 0 0 2 7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 147 153 158 146 141 132 111 126 111 111 106 120 112 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 148 148 149 151 151 152 140 140 140 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 139 140 140 142 145 147 149 137 137 137 142 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 4 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 60 57 57 57 60 63 65 67 67 69 71 70 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 19 20 19 21 21 14 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 55 57 58 65 63 67 71 72 76 61 75 77 36 200 MB DIV 84 90 85 87 84 93 114 69 67 53 52 17 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 3 6 7 7 7 LAND (KM) 158 150 144 147 154 194 193 124 12 -65 83 197 234 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.4 79.5 79.8 80.0 80.7 81.4 82.4 83.7 85.2 86.8 88.3 89.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 7 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 43 41 40 38 39 42 11 21 4 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. -9. -15. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 12. 17. 22. 29. 32. 22. 14. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.0 79.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.42 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.75 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.35 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.53 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.55 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 196.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 26.9% 12.5% 11.4% 8.5% 11.2% 20.4% Logistic: 10.7% 31.9% 16.0% 10.1% 0.0% 14.2% 4.2% Bayesian: 2.6% 34.5% 16.7% 0.2% 0.3% 18.6% 0.1% Consensus: 7.3% 31.1% 15.1% 7.3% 2.9% 14.7% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/22/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 57 59 62 67 72 79 82 46 40 37 35 18HR AGO 50 49 53 55 58 63 68 75 78 42 36 33 31 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 51 56 61 68 71 35 29 26 24 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 48 53 60 63 27 21 18 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT