* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 56 58 61 69 76 82 79 74 67 62 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 56 58 61 69 76 82 55 42 35 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 55 57 58 59 63 68 72 52 41 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 18 17 16 14 15 11 18 16 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -6 -4 -4 -5 -7 -5 -4 1 4 5 -4 SHEAR DIR 152 152 155 154 144 145 114 115 96 125 107 116 119 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 148 149 149 149 151 153 144 139 138 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 137 140 142 142 142 146 150 141 136 134 138 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 58 57 56 61 65 67 66 69 70 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 17 16 16 18 20 21 18 16 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 70 62 58 61 68 63 73 73 73 76 70 87 68 200 MB DIV 88 93 94 83 90 62 108 96 80 56 76 38 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 5 3 8 5 LAND (KM) 191 186 180 172 168 190 203 154 70 -69 40 159 255 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.2 79.2 79.4 79.7 80.5 81.1 81.9 83.0 84.5 86.2 87.7 89.0 STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 5 6 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 41 41 42 40 39 37 39 43 32 22 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 4. -1. -5. -12. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 13. 16. 24. 31. 37. 34. 29. 22. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.3 79.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.42 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.58 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.42 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.55 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.58 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 28.5% 12.6% 11.1% 8.0% 10.1% 19.5% Logistic: 10.2% 33.4% 16.2% 8.0% 0.0% 13.3% 6.1% Bayesian: 6.2% 48.0% 30.2% 0.2% 0.3% 11.0% 7.2% Consensus: 8.6% 36.7% 19.7% 6.4% 2.8% 11.5% 10.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/21/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 54 56 58 61 69 76 82 55 42 35 30 18HR AGO 45 44 48 50 52 55 63 70 76 49 36 29 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 48 56 63 69 42 29 22 17 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 48 55 61 34 21 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT