* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162016 11/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 45 52 62 72 75 70 62 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 45 52 62 72 75 43 39 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 34 37 41 46 50 34 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 19 16 17 13 13 9 10 14 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -7 -8 -6 -6 -5 -7 -2 0 6 9 0 SHEAR DIR 161 157 155 160 158 138 130 103 110 102 119 102 124 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 146 147 149 151 150 153 154 141 140 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 137 136 138 141 144 143 147 152 139 136 138 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 6 4 6 4 5 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 56 55 56 58 64 65 66 69 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 17 18 17 18 19 20 23 22 18 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 67 71 63 59 61 61 69 72 74 70 63 81 71 200 MB DIV 84 83 86 88 85 74 76 93 77 101 84 68 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 2 7 8 6 LAND (KM) 212 206 200 205 211 210 242 209 149 15 -31 113 227 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.1 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.3 79.4 79.5 79.5 80.1 80.9 81.6 82.4 83.7 85.6 87.3 88.7 STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 1 1 1 3 4 3 5 8 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 38 37 36 32 33 37 39 14 19 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 3. -3. -12. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 16. 22. 32. 42. 45. 40. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 79.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 SIXTEEN 11/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.44 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.66 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.53 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 126.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 17.7% 11.0% 9.0% 6.7% 8.7% 14.9% Logistic: 6.7% 27.4% 11.4% 6.1% 0.0% 10.3% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 19.3% 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 2.7% 8.4% Consensus: 4.7% 21.5% 10.3% 5.1% 2.2% 7.2% 9.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 SIXTEEN 11/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 SIXTEEN 11/21/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 39 45 52 62 72 75 43 39 35 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 42 49 59 69 72 40 36 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 43 53 63 66 34 30 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 35 45 55 58 26 22 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT