* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 72 76 83 83 81 73 65 58 53 50 50 51 52 51 V (KT) LAND 55 62 68 72 76 83 83 81 73 54 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 70 75 80 87 88 87 81 63 41 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 16 21 18 18 22 23 30 33 28 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -3 -5 3 -1 7 1 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 222 210 240 255 204 220 201 211 208 227 236 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.7 31.1 30.9 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 171 172 172 171 171 169 168 169 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 169 164 166 169 169 164 161 159 154 151 156 155 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.1 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 10 10 8 9 6 10 8 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 63 62 58 59 58 58 59 61 63 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 12 10 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 23 37 27 13 30 17 18 9 20 -24 -25 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 54 70 58 43 69 21 40 11 35 51 25 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 3 19 14 6 12 8 6 7 0 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 170 117 91 138 220 395 267 133 75 -31 -82 -128 -234 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.5 25.1 26.7 28.2 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.6 86.2 86.6 87.1 88.7 90.2 91.7 94.2 95.5 95.9 96.6 98.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 4 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 111 93 65 57 56 54 57 38 53 49 20 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 21. 28. 28. 26. 18. 10. 3. -2. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.3 85.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 17.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 3.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 6.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.3% 65.5% 44.2% 32.8% 20.2% 44.7% 35.1% 19.7% Logistic: 25.8% 60.5% 44.2% 30.6% 15.8% 39.1% 25.4% 12.6% Bayesian: 20.6% 51.2% 23.2% 20.0% 3.4% 5.9% 1.3% 0.1% Consensus: 27.6% 59.1% 37.2% 27.8% 13.2% 29.9% 20.6% 10.8% DTOPS: 10.0% 15.0% 9.0% 13.0% 1.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/22/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 9( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 62 68 72 76 83 83 81 73 54 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 60 64 68 75 75 73 65 46 30 22 20 19 19 19 19 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 59 66 66 64 56 37 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 56 56 54 46 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT