* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142020 08/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 35 44 53 58 61 60 54 46 39 38 39 42 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 33 35 37 48 53 57 55 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 33 39 42 46 47 40 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 5 4 13 10 19 19 29 35 39 35 34 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 3 3 0 -4 -3 -1 1 0 -2 -7 -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 77 136 185 226 242 252 242 230 211 226 232 250 252 268 266 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.5 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.5 31.4 32.1 32.1 31.9 31.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 171 171 166 172 172 172 171 171 170 170 171 172 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 163 162 166 171 168 154 161 163 163 158 171 170 170 171 158 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 10 7 10 7 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 76 73 70 69 66 64 60 62 57 58 50 52 48 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 7 8 9 9 10 11 10 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 44 37 29 42 59 37 27 21 -14 2 -39 -15 -26 -34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 93 98 71 66 46 57 31 28 12 24 4 18 15 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 5 4 9 -3 10 3 16 6 9 1 0 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 178 231 259 201 142 -24 156 392 302 146 -40 -199 -326 -489 -708 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.2 19.9 21.3 22.9 24.7 26.6 28.4 30.0 31.3 32.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.1 84.6 85.1 85.6 86.0 87.2 88.6 90.2 91.9 93.2 94.2 94.9 95.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 8 8 8 10 11 12 11 10 8 7 6 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 100 121 120 103 36 38 62 55 43 11 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 36. 40. 42. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. -2. -8. -13. -18. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 14. 23. 28. 31. 30. 24. 16. 9. 8. 9. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.4 84.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 102.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.68 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.97 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 46.0% 29.7% 12.8% 12.5% 14.5% 23.1% 47.2% Logistic: 7.2% 46.5% 27.5% 18.2% 9.1% 24.0% 26.3% 44.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 2.3% Consensus: 5.2% 32.2% 19.7% 10.4% 7.3% 13.0% 16.5% 31.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 33 35 37 48 53 57 55 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 33 35 46 51 55 53 41 30 26 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 30 41 46 50 48 36 25 21 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 35 40 44 42 30 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT