* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/28/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 25 20 17 17 19 22 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 28 32 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 28 28 29 33 33 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 16 15 15 18 32 48 79 81 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 4 1 7 3 2 3 -4 -8 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 271 302 288 285 266 253 245 223 222 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 28.1 25.0 18.0 19.0 14.8 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 163 163 163 165 143 111 80 82 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 138 136 137 143 130 103 77 77 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.9 -50.2 -50.5 -51.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -50.4 -49.9 -49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 -0.3 1.1 2.2 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 6 4 11 10 4 6 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 61 63 65 65 56 51 52 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 17 14 12 8 8 9 17 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -55 -17 7 45 70 117 202 163 178 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 30 27 38 69 11 37 66 61 46 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 19 19 13 47 20 11 31 -60 -125 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -495 -578 -682 -691 -730 -537 4 233 33 -6 394 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.5 36.5 36.9 37.3 38.1 39.0 41.3 45.6 48.3 49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.5 91.6 90.7 89.1 87.5 82.2 74.8 67.2 60.0 53.6 47.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 13 18 25 30 32 30 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 15 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 807 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -2. -14. -28. -44. -52. -59. -68. -75. -78. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -11. -15. -17. -16. -10. -7. -8. -7. -3. -2. -0. -0. -3. -7. -13. -12. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -17. -9. -11. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -15. -18. -18. -16. -13. -13. -12. -23. -40. -45. -51. -60. -70. -79. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.4 92.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/28/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -50.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/28/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/28/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 29 28 28 28 32 32 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 31 31 35 35 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 30 34 34 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 29 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT