* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/27/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 76 73 71 69 65 59 53 55 41 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 60 45 37 33 29 28 28 34 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 59 44 36 32 28 28 28 36 34 31 26 24 26 29 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 23 17 19 15 13 21 38 57 82 81 60 44 44 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -2 -3 1 9 1 3 6 -9 -8 0 1 2 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 264 254 272 295 275 250 245 239 215 221 221 212 210 223 N/A N/A SST (C) 31.1 31.0 30.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 28.1 25.6 18.0 18.6 13.6 13.5 13.0 12.7 13.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 172 166 163 165 143 116 81 82 72 68 69 72 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 173 167 160 140 138 145 131 108 78 78 69 65 66 69 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.7 -49.5 -49.9 -50.3 -51.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -50.1 -49.4 -47.8 -48.3 -47.8 -48.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.4 2.9 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 12 7 5 10 4 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 58 59 64 63 46 43 47 54 48 52 50 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 24 22 19 17 13 11 11 19 16 15 16 16 15 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -45 -42 -74 -48 43 84 95 171 163 172 170 161 177 110 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 32 28 39 30 60 22 30 57 62 46 22 21 0 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 9 12 24 13 48 9 -2 53 -46 -90 -34 -34 -23 -65 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -157 -297 -435 -501 -587 -707 -511 -20 241 86 93 519 733 1236 1031 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.2 32.5 33.7 34.7 35.6 37.1 37.9 38.6 41.3 45.4 50.0 52.7 53.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.0 92.7 91.9 91.2 88.1 82.0 75.3 67.1 59.2 52.8 48.1 44.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 13 19 26 30 35 33 26 14 17 28 33 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 14 CX,CY: -1/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -8. -14. -19. -25. -31. -37. -41. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -14. -22. -30. -36. -39. -41. -43. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -9. -11. -10. -8. -5. -5. -5. -4. -1. 2. 5. 3. 1. -3. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -7. -13. -18. -22. -14. -20. -22. -22. -22. -22. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -12. -14. -16. -20. -26. -32. -30. -44. -55. -62. -70. -77. -87. -92. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 31.2 93.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -45.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.05 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 417.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.38 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.1% 3.1% 2.7% 1.7% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/27/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 60 45 37 33 29 28 28 34 19 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 69 61 57 53 52 52 58 43 45 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 85 82 81 73 69 65 64 64 70 55 57 36 36 36 36 36 36 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 71 67 66 66 72 57 59 38 38 38 38 38 38 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 62 61 61 67 52 54 33 33 33 33 33 33 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT